Highway Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau SummitTraffic and revenue studies

Lieu : Kenya

Client : Vinci Concessions

Date : 2017 - 2018

Le projet

Through a public-private partnership (PPP), the Kenyan government is seeking to design, build, finance, maintain and operate 215 kilometers of highway between Rironi and Mau Summit.

The road will consist of two segments: the main one (175 km) will be widened to 2×2 lanes, while the secondary one (57 km parallel to a section of the main segment) will simply be reinforced. It is planned that this freeway will have to be paid for by its users, with tolls being installed on a regular basis.

Vinci is bidding for the contract, and has asked setec to help with traffic forecasts.

175 km

2x2voies

modèle de prévisions de trafic

Nos missions

A traffic forecasting model is needed to guarantee the best possible offer. Given the project’s PPP legal form, the traffic and revenue risk is assumed by the State of Kenya.

Consequently, the main aspect to be modeled, for Vinci, is the level of traffic on the sections, and in particular the level of heavy goods vehicle traffic. As the latter are mainly responsible for road wear, Vinci needs to be able to estimate maintenance and operating costs.

Although revenue forecasts are not essential to Vinci, they do reassure investors and lenders as to the viability of the project, and are inextricably linked to toll levels, which determine traffic levels.